The Burma Campaign UK today warned that the end of the National Convention, the first stage of the Burmese military dictatorship’s so-called roadmap to democracy, could lead to a human rights and humanitarian crisis in the country. One that could also have consequences for Burma’s neighbours.
The Burma Campaign UK is calling on the international community to reject the outcome of the Convention and insist on the regime obeying UN General Assembly resolutions, which call for genuine tri-partite dialogue between the regime, the democracy movement led by the National League for Democracy, and representatives of Burma’s ethnic groups.
“This entire process is a sham,” said Mark Farmaner, Acting Director of the Burma Campaign UK. “Democratic groups were excluded, and the outcome is a proposed constitution that enshrines military rule. As far as democratic reform is concerned, the big change will be that the generals will wear suits instead of uniforms.”
The Burma Campaign UK is concerned not only about the fact that the process is designed to keep the generals in power, but also about the impact on ceasefire agreements with armed ethnic groups. Their aspirations for a federal state that would provide a degree of autonomy from central government, and protect their culture, have all been rejected. Furthermore, demands by the regime that the ceasefire groups lay down their arms are causing increasing concern. Many view the regime’s demands to lay down arms as a complete surrender of everything they fought for.
Debates are now raging within and between ceasefire groups on how to respond. There appears to be a real possibility that many ceasefire organisations could return to arms, or split, with factions once again taking up their guns. If this were to happen on a large scale, it would not only completely change the current political situation within the country, but also threaten a new human rights and humanitarian crisis, as the regime ruthlessly targets civilians in conflict areas.
There seems to be little understanding or recognition by the international community about this potential new crisis. While it is by no means certain that Burma will be plunged into a new round of conflict, the danger is real. Resistance may peter out and groups compromise, there could be a return to large-scale conflict, or the regime may be content to force some of the smaller ceasefire groups to give up their arms, and ignore the more powerful groups such as the Kachin Independence Organisation and United Wa State Army.
“Some governments seem to support the current process arguing ‘some change is better than no change,’ said Mark Farmaner, “but this is a naïve and dangerous approach that could not only lead to greater conflict, but also leave in place a government with no respect for human rights and no interest in tackling Burma’s humanitarian crisis.”
The National Convention started in 1993. The constitution drafting process is step one of a seven stage roadmap to democracy. It has only been drafting guidelines for a draft constitution. The next step is for what the regime calls “step-by-step implementation of the process necessary for the emergence of a genuine and disciplined democratic system”. This would be followed by a commission to draft a constitution, which will then go to a referendum, which could then be followed by elections. Legislative bodies would then convene, and finally there would be the “building of a modern and democratic nation.” If the next six steps each take as long as the first, it will be at least 2091 before the roadmap to democracy is completed.
“For 14 years the international community has let itself be taken for a ride by the regime on its so-called roadmap to democracy,” said Mark Farmaner, “but this is not a roadmap, it’s a roundabout, and it is going nowhere. It is time for the international community to get into the driving seat.”
For more information contact Mark Farmaner on 02073244713.