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Myanmar military “doesn’t need tricks” – it holds all the cards

March 10, 2016 Campaign News

Southeast Asia Globe interview with Mark Farmaner, director at Burma Campaign UK:

Myanmar’s majority National League for Democracy (NLD) party, led by the celebrated Aung Sang Suu Kyi, has put forward two preferred candidates for the presidential position: Henry Van Thio, an ethnic Chin, and Htin Kyaw, a 70-year-old NLD stalwart and trusted aide to Suu Kyi, It seems likely the latter will be the next person to lead Myanmar, at least in designation.

What’s your reaction to the NLD’s announcement?
There’s no surprise here that Aung San Suu Kyi has chosen someone who has been loyal and close to her for many years. And we were also expecting that she would select one candidate from one of the ethnic minority groups, because she said she wanted to be more inclusive.

What’s your opinion of Htin Kyaw?
He’s a good choice. People are already calling him a puppet, but he’s very smart – an educated man. He has a lot of experience running different organisations, so he is someone who comes with some experience. Obviously, at the end of the day, Suu Kyi will still be making all the key decisions in the government.

Do you think the military will have any tricks up its sleeve?
The military doesn’t need to have any tricks up its sleeve. It has had this transition plan where it knew an NLD election victory was inevitable and it has designed a constitution to ensure that it still controls key ministries. They will still have power and influence over government, regardless of the NLD victory. There’s no reason for them to make a fuss because, with the implementation of the plan, they need everything to go smoothly.

For the military, it was always unacceptable for Suu Kyi to become president. That’s a red line for them and that’s why they put the clause in the constitution to prevent her from becoming president. It will be an NLD-led government power sharing with the military. The key cabinet positions will be controlled by the military, the military get to choose the budget before the rest of the government and the most powerful institution is not the parliament, it’s the National Defence and Security Council, which has 11 members, six of which are from the military. So for the military, their interests are protected and as long as it’s not Suu Kyi, I don’t think they care who the president will be.

Read the full interview here.

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