Article in the Myanmar Times by Zoya Phan, Campaigns Manager at Burma Campaign UK
With the National League for Democracy likely to form the next government in Myanmar, is there finally an end in sight for conflict that has plagued the country since independence? Probably not. The NLD may have the will to bring peace, but even in government, it won’t have the constitutional power to do so.
Most ethnic people are fully aware that the reform process initiated by President U Thein Sein is a sham – more about image than real reform. The first step in the reform process was to bring in an undemocratic constitution that increased central government control over ethnic states, rather than give us more control over our lives and our lands. At the convention drafting the principles of the constitution, chaired by U Thein Sein, he rejected every proposal made by ethnic delegates for more autonomy, more rights and protection of our cultures.
President U Thein Sein’s government has tried to bribe, bomb and bully ethnic organisations into signing ceasefires, and then when “peace” is supposed to have arrived the number of Myanmar army soldiers in our lands increases rather than decreases. Divide and rule tactics are used, promises made and broken, and what little trust some may have had has evaporated. The goal of President U Thein Sein is to force the submission of ethnic people under the undemocratic 2008 constitution, which he drafted. A federal Myanmar where ethnic people have equal rights is not the vision of the current government and military.
The NLD is different. They have supported a federal system whereby ethnic people have more control over their lands and their destiny. They have committed themselves to peace and to respecting human rights. An NLD government is going to be much better than having a military-backed government.
The problem is that while Myanmar, for the first time since independence, may have a government more willing to accept the rights and aspirations of ethnic people and agrees to some kind of federal system, the military have carefully ensured that an NLD government will be powerless to actually implement any agreement.
An NLD government could hold peace talks, but it won’t have any constitutional power over the military. The next government could be talking peace while the Myanmar army wages war – as is the situation now. The military is not accountable to anyone and the constitution has guaranteed its impunity. Just because an NLD government is genuine in its intentions and the Union Solidarity and Development Party government wasn’t, it won’t change the facts on the ground.
Even if peace talks between an NLD government and ethnic organisations reached a successful conclusion, no agreement could be implemented. This is because any deal would have to involve constitutional change, and that can’t happen without the support of the military, as they have 25 percent of seats in parliament – enough to block any constitutional change. The military will undoubtedly veto moves to devolve power to a more federal system.
It is important to remember that it was discussions by the U Nu-led government in 1962 to give some autonomy to some ethnic groups that helped trigger the military coup that year. Fear of a repeat could limit the willingness of some NLD leaders to consider the fundamental changes needed to bring lasting peace to Myanmar.
The constitution gives the military the power to retake direct control of the country if they decide national unity is threatened. This is undoubtedly a deliberate tactic by the military to try to stop the NLD from increasing the rights of ethnic people. But the NLD must not allow itself to be threatened or blackmailed into denying ethnic people their rights. The military have spent years planning for this transition to a new hybrid system, one with a democratic face but with the military still having ultimate control. Retaking direct control of the country is the last thing they want to do.
Many ethnic people may benefit from an NLD government, but in practice the election results won’t bring ethnic people any closer to our dreams of having our rights protected, and more autonomy to control our lands and our natural resources. The international community may call this a significant step in Myanmar’s transition to democracy, but the key issue responsible for dictatorship in the first place, the refusal of the military to accept the rights and aspirations of ethnic people, is no closer to being resolved. Ethnic people will continue to need international support until there is lasting peace in Burma.